Adopting eight high-impact solutions can transform the growth of virtuous mobility, potentially doubling the share of sustainable mobility in the modal split from approximately 30% to 60% of passenger kilometers (PAX) over the next decade, according to the Arthur D. Little (ADL)/POLIS Future of Mobility report.
Despite the promise of sustainable mobility to reduce emissions, increase choice and deliver seamless journeys, its progress over the last 15 years has been slow, with use of public transport, active mobility and new/shared mobility services growing by just +10% pts of trips. 70% of passenger-km in urban areas are still by individual car, while the transport sector still contributes to 25-40% of national carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on a worldwide basis with a steady increase since 1990.
Developed by ADL in combination with POLIS, Europe's leading network of local and regional authorities advancing sustainable mobility through transport innovation, the study provides a 360-degree perspective on mobility matters. It aims to shed light on what key stakeholders — transport authorities at local, regional, and national levels; public and private mobility services providers; transport sector suppliers; and investors — should do to accelerate the transition toward more sustainable mobility. The joint study is based on extensive interviews and focus groups with sector stakeholders and global research to collect insights from mobility leaders.
“While some progress has been made since we published our first study in 2011, overall the individual passenger car still dominates urban transport,” says Francois-Joseph Van Audenhove, Managing Partner, Head of Travel & Transportation Practice at ADL and leading ADL's Future of Mobility Lab. “However, our analysis shows that, with comprehensive implementation, appropriate funding, and robust governance at the system level, the implementation of the eight high-impact solutions reviewed have the potential to double the global share of sustainable mobility and accelerate the transition toward more virtuous mobility systems in the next decade. The potential for transformation is evident, yet the real challenge lies in putting it into action.”
The eight solutions reviewed are:
1. Climate change mitigation policies
Adopting a more joined-up policy approach, complementing electrification with other actions to maximize its impact.
2. City of Proximity (15 minute city) concepts
Shaping cities to be more human-centric and accessible.
3. Dimensioning of mass transit
– developing multimodal masterplans to encourage public transport use.
4. New mobility services (micro, shared and on-demand)
Greater collaboration between local and regional authorities and new mobility service providers to create and grow shared-mobility ecosystems, combining public transport and new mobility.
5. Mobility-as-a-Service
Aadapt a comprehensive approach to frame and enable MaaS solutions that are enabling mobility policy's objectives, and providing more value than the sum of their parts.
6. Autonomous mobility
Anticipating the introduction of autonomous vehicles and looking at specific use cases that increase sustainability.
7. Mobility demand management
Driving behavior change through a combination of regulation and cultural change.
8. Mobility funding
Optimizing the efficiency and effectiveness of funding and diversifying funding sources for operators.
Individually none of the solutions has an impact of more than around 15%, showing the need for a coordinated sustained approach to enable success. There is also a large gap between theory and practice — 81% of mobility leaders saw the eight solutions as important, but under 60% are confident in the current readiness of mobility systems to implement them, highlighting the need for system-level coordination and enablement to bridge this gap and turn potential into reality.
